30/11/09: Ten Year Treasury Note (^TNX, CBOE)
Broken through support - short opened at 3.2010%
Monday, 30 November 2009
Monday, 23 November 2009
MNTA: A potentially powerful breakout developing
23/11/09: Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA, NASDAQ)
Developing a breakout of the technical chart pattern shown in the graphic below. This is not a perfect timing point for entry so not a trade alert but occassionally I will give examples of such breakouts in progress and see how they develop for potential entry points. One to watch!
Developing a breakout of the technical chart pattern shown in the graphic below. This is not a perfect timing point for entry so not a trade alert but occassionally I will give examples of such breakouts in progress and see how they develop for potential entry points. One to watch!
Sunday, 22 November 2009
Currensee Social Trading Community
I am evaluating the currensee website which provides a forum for traders to interact, a bit like a Facebook for trading. Is proving interesting so far, more details soon.
MGM: At resistance level
22/11/09: MGM Mirage (MGM, NYSE)
At resistance and represents a speculative low-risk play. Sell Short at around $11, initial 50% Take Profit at $9, initial stop loss at $12.
At resistance and represents a speculative low-risk play. Sell Short at around $11, initial 50% Take Profit at $9, initial stop loss at $12.
ISTA: At support level
22/11/09: ISTA Pharmaceuticals (ISTA, NASDAQ)
At support and starting a new uptrend, this represents a low risk trade. A trade can either be entered around the close at $4.19 or a few cents lower around the $4.05 area which is the area I will be targetting.
Initial target and 50% take profit around $4.8, longer term target around $6, stop loss $3.39
Possibility to go for an options play also with .IIQLA Dec 09 $5 call.
At support and starting a new uptrend, this represents a low risk trade. A trade can either be entered around the close at $4.19 or a few cents lower around the $4.05 area which is the area I will be targetting.
Initial target and 50% take profit around $4.8, longer term target around $6, stop loss $3.39
Possibility to go for an options play also with .IIQLA Dec 09 $5 call.
Mid Term Swing Opportunity: Short Eurodollar
22/11/09 The Eurodollar (CME) is one of the most liquid markets in the world. It is an inverted interest rate market, meaning it cannot go past 100. It is currently at 99.735 this is as low risk as they come for a short trade with very limited further upside potential. RSI is in overbought territory. Allocate standard 5% of account to this trade. Sell at market open or around 99.735 level. For demo purposes around 7.5 contracts would equate to 5% risk of a $100,000 portfolio.
Eurodollar as of 20th November 2009
Eurodollar as of 20th November 2009
Methods used
In this blog I will share trade setups from several of my different systems including, but not limited to:
- Mid-Long term swing opportunities (trades from several days to weeks)
- Trendline Trades and Support and Resistance
- Breakout Trades
- Automated Trading (eg: TradeStation, MetaTrader,ZuluTrade)
- Other Technical Indicators and Systems
My experiences with Automated Trading Systems
The power of being able to have your computer make money for you 24/7 without human intervention is like the holy grail of the trading world, computers never get tired nor do they miss any opportunity in the markets. Indeed the past few years have seen huge increases in the amount of 'quants' or 'trading robots' used by big institutional players. Likewise smaller traders are becoming more interested by software such as MetaTrader which permit auto-execution of trading strategies.
My experience
I have used the MetaTrader Forex platform for many years now, and even coded my own automated systems. From the testing of hundreds, probably thousands of Expert Advisors (EA's) I have done very few survive the long term. This is because often they are 'curve-fitted' to suit current market conditions, eg: they may work well in a trending market but if it starts to move to a sideways movement will rapidly encounter losses. Anoher trend recently has been scalping EA's in the Asian market (quiter and less volatile period) which trade quickly for a few pips, however often the risk to reward ratio of these EA's is terrible, eg: they may risk 100 pips to make only 5 to 10 pips, over the long term it is very unlikely such a system will survive.
Conclusion
Please think twice before spending money on automated systems, especially metatrader EA's. There are some good ones out there but 95% just won't stand up over the long term. The real challenge is for the EA or robot to be able to adapt to the current market conditions. I am coding some systems which aim to go some way to doing this and hope to post some results on here soon.
The larger instiutions often use quant methods such as very small price indescripencies that would be very difficult to take advantage of as a smaller retail trader.
My experience
I have used the MetaTrader Forex platform for many years now, and even coded my own automated systems. From the testing of hundreds, probably thousands of Expert Advisors (EA's) I have done very few survive the long term. This is because often they are 'curve-fitted' to suit current market conditions, eg: they may work well in a trending market but if it starts to move to a sideways movement will rapidly encounter losses. Anoher trend recently has been scalping EA's in the Asian market (quiter and less volatile period) which trade quickly for a few pips, however often the risk to reward ratio of these EA's is terrible, eg: they may risk 100 pips to make only 5 to 10 pips, over the long term it is very unlikely such a system will survive.
Conclusion
Please think twice before spending money on automated systems, especially metatrader EA's. There are some good ones out there but 95% just won't stand up over the long term. The real challenge is for the EA or robot to be able to adapt to the current market conditions. I am coding some systems which aim to go some way to doing this and hope to post some results on here soon.
The larger instiutions often use quant methods such as very small price indescripencies that would be very difficult to take advantage of as a smaller retail trader.
Disclaimer
Trade setups and ideas discussed on this blog are my opinions and do not constitute instructions to buy or sell, trading involves a substantial amount of risk and you take full responsibility for any trading decision made. No liability can be assumed for any post made.
An Introduction
I have been interested in technical trading and trading systems for abhout seven years now, am familiar with just about every type of technical indicator and system methodology out there! It really does take a lot of commitment and persistence to make it over the long term in this challenging domain. I thought it would be a good idea to start a blog to share my trading ideas and thoughts, my systems are based on unique, proprietary ideas many of which have taken years of hard work to develop. My background is in IT which fits in well with this domain of problem solving and developing unique methodologies. I hope that by sharing my thoughts and experiences I can save fellow traders and people with interest in the markets a lot of time and effort. Hope you enjoy the posts and thanks for following :-)
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